Soccer Betting – How To Make A Profit

Home In On The Best Picks And Tips From Hundreds Each Week:

Many football (soccer to our American friends) picks and tips sites provide only a few picks/tips a week, some only one, with many charging huge amounts for the privilege. In this article I will show you how to get the very best from hundreds of free and low cost picks and tips every week by answering these four questions.

What if you were able to pick the absolute best picks from hundreds of weekly picks/tips greatly increasing your chances of success?

What if those picks/tips are chosen based on the past performance of similar picks/tips and those picks/tips are all created using a combination of several tried and tested statistical methods?

What if you could know whether draw predictions, home predictions or away predictions are more successful for the English Premier League, the Italian Serie A, the German Bundesliga, or many other leagues across Europe?

What if you could do it all for FREE or very low cost?

Well now you can. If you’re interested then read on.

Some Tips Are Better Than Others:

Using well established statistical methods along with automated software it’s possible to generate hundreds of soccer tips every week for many leagues, theoretically you could cover all of the major leagues in the world. So what, why would you want to do that? Surely many of the tips will be grossly inaccurate but on the other hand many will be correct so how can you determine which will be successful and which not? It would be much better to just concentrate on one or two matches and predict their outcome by intensive and careful focused analysis.

On the face of it the above responses that I have seen over the years have some merit and deserve careful consideration, there is a good argument for focussed analysis of a single match with the aim of trying to predict its outcome. However, consider this, when a scientist runs a statistical analysis how many data items do they select as a representative sample? One, two… or more? When carrying out statistical analysis the more data you have to work on the better the outcome. For example,if you wanted to calculate the average height of a class of school children you could just take the first two or three as a sample. But if they are all six feet tall they are going to be highly unrepresentative so obviously you would get all their heights and calculate the average from those, the result is a much more accurate answer. It’s a simplistic example but hopefully you see my point. Obviously you can apply that argument to a single match by collecting past results for each side and carrying out statistical analysis techniques using that data, but why restrict your analysis to that one match?

We know that if we make hundreds of automated tips, based on sound tried and tested statistical methods, that some will be successful and others won’t. So how do we target in on the best tips, the ones most likely to be correct, and how do we do it week after week? Well, the answer is to keep a record of how each and every tip performs, some tips are better than others and we want to know which ones. At this stage, if your thinking how can I possibly calculate all of that information for every game, in every league I want to cover, and do it every week, then don’t worry I’ll show you how it’s all done for you at the end of the article.

Results Are Not Always The Same:

Simply keeping a record of how each of the hundreds of tips we make actually perform against the eventual result is not enough, what we need now is a way of analysing that data and grouping it logically to get the best from it. Results are not always the same, in other words a tip that shows one possible outcome for match A and the same possible outcome for match B will not necessarily produce the same result (i.e. a correct prediction or a wrong prediction). Why is this? Well there are hundreds of reasons why and you will never be able to account for them all, if you could you would no doubt be a millionaire. When trying to predict the outcome of a match you may look at such qualitative things as the current injury list of each team, the team sheet, morale of the players, etc. We can also look at Quantitative factors using our statistical methods to predict the outcome of the match, so we may look at such things as past performance, position in the league, or more tried and tested statistical methods such as the Rateform method. We can use all of this information to predict the outcome of match A and the outcome of match B and still not have the same result, part of the reason for this is, as explained before, that we can not account for all the factors in a match, it’s impossible. But there’s something else, something we can account for which we have not yet thought about.

When we look at one match in isolation we only look at the factors concerning each of the two teams in the match, but why not expand this to look at how the other teams they have played are also performing? ‘Why would we want to do that?’ I hear some of you say. Because results are not always the same. Let’s say our prediction for match A and match B is a home win (forgetting about the predicted score for the moment). What else can we take into account to improve the prediction of a home win? We can look at the performance of all the home win tips made for the same competition that the match is being played in and then make a judgement based on that new information. This is great as it gives us an extra factoring level to take into account that we did not have before.

Looking across all the home win predictions in a single league will give us a percentage success rate for home wins for that particular league, but we can improve on this even further. We can do this by doing the exact same exercise across many different leagues and obtaining a percentage success rate for each league. This means we can now look for the league which produces the best overall home win prediction success rate and look for home win predictions for the coming fixtures. By default we know that that league is more likely to produce a successful outcome for a home prediction than any other. Of course we can employ this technique for away win and draw predictions as well.

How Tight Is The League?:

Why does this difference between the leagues occur? As with trying to predict the outcome of a single match there are many factors that make up this phenomenon, but there are just a few major factors that influence why one league should produce more home wins through a season than another. The most obvious of these could be described as the ‘tightness’ of the league. What do I mean by ‘tightness’? In any league there is often a gap in the skills and abilities of those teams consistently at the top of the league and those at the bottom, this is often expressed as a ‘difference in class’. This difference in class varies markedly between different leagues with some leagues being much more competitive than others due to a closer level of skills throughout the league, ‘a tight league’. In the case of a tight league the instances of drawn games will be more noticeable than with a ‘not so tight league’ and home wins will most likely be of a lower frequency.

So, let’s say we are interested in predicting a home win, armed with our new information about the ‘tightness’ of leagues we could make predictions for matches throughout a season for as many leagues as we can manage, and watch how those predictions perform in each league. You will find that the success of the predictions will closely match the ‘tightness’ of a particular league, so where a particular league produces more home wins then we will have more success with our home predictions. Don’t be misled, this does not mean that just because there are more home wins we are bound to be more accurate, what I am taking about is a success rate in percentage terms of the number of home predictions made which has nothing directly to do with how many actual home wins there are. For example, let’s say we make one hundred home predictions in league A and one hundred in league B, and let’s say that seventy five percent are correct in league A but only sixty percent in league B. We have made the same number of predictions in each league with differing results, and those difference are most likely due to the ‘tightness’ of each league. League B will be a ‘tight’ league with more teams having similar levels of ‘class’, whereas league A has a wider margin of class when it comes to the teams within it. Therefore we should pick out the best performing league concerning home wins and make our home win selections from that league.

We Have To Be Consistent:

Of course there is more to it than that. It’s no good just taking each tip and recording how it performed we have to apply the same rules to each and every tip made. You have to make sure that the parameters you set for each predictive method you use (e.g. Rateform, Score Prediction, etc.) remain constant. So choose your best settings for each method and stick to them for each and every prediction, for every league, and for the whole season. You must do this in order to retain consistency of predictions within leagues, between leagues, and over time. There is nothing stopping you using several different sets of parameters as long as you keep the data produced from each separate.

If you are wondering what the parameters are then take the Rateform method as an example. Using this method we produce an integer number that represents the possible outcome of a match (I’m not going to go into detail about the Rateform method here as that’s the subject of another of my articles). You can set break points that represent a home win and an away win, so if the resulting rateform output for a match is higher than the upper breakpoint then that match could be deemed a home win. Similarly, if the resulting rateform output for a match is lower than the lower breakpoint then that match could be deemed as an away win. Anything that falls in-between is deemed a draw.

Footyforecast.com (now 1X2Monster.com) has been delivering this kind of information, week in week out, on its website since 1999. It covers eighteen leagues across Europe including; English Premiership, Scottish Premiership, Italian Serie A, German Bundesliga, Dutch Eredivisie, Spain, France, to name but a few. A total of seven different statistical methods are used to determine the outcome of each game played in each league, and a comprehensive record of how each method in each game performed is kept. Apart from how each tip performed within its respective league Footyforecast also provides the league tables of how each league has performed in successfully predicting outcomes of games. The league tables of prediction performance are produced for home win predictions, draw predictions, away win predictions, and for overall predictions and are invaluable tools to the soccer punter when deciding where to target their European soccer predictions.

So there you have it. Hopefully I have shown you how to target in on the best leagues in order to raise your chances of success when predicting 1X2 results, and, although I offer no guarantees, I’m fairly confident that this method will improve your profits.

Soccer Betting – The "Asian Handicap"

A draw, or tied score, is a frequent outcome in soccer. In the 2008-2009 season, almost a quarter of all Premier League matches resulted in a draw. Because such an outcome is so common, traditional betting usually involves betting within the context of three different outcomes: a win for one team, a draw, or a win for the other team. The “Asian handicap” is a means of changing this by “handicapping” the underdog by a certain percentage, meaning that a draw becomes impossible.

Most handicaps are made at intervals of one half or one quarter, meaning that there has to be a winner since it is impossible to score a half or quarter goal. The purpose is to make the odds as close to 50-50 as possible and eliminating the draw as a possible outcome. Because the odds are almost half when a handicap is applied, the payout is usually even money, or very close to it.

The primary benefit is encouraging punters to bet on matches where there is a clear favorite. For example, if Manchester United (winner of the Premier League in the 2008-2009 season) were to play West Bromwich (the bottom team of the Premier League during the same season), few punters would be interested in betting. This is because Manchester United is a much better team and the odds are strongly in their favor.

However, if West Bromwich was given a handicap of +2.5, it would mean that they would be effectively starting with a lead of 2.5 goals. This means Manchester United would have to score three goals more than West Bromwich to be the winner as far as the bet is concerned. If West Bromwich scored one goal, then Manchester would have to score four to win. Handicapping obviously changes the odds significantly.

An interesting aspect of handicapping is the push. If an even number is used for the handicap, and the actual score plus the handicap equals a draw, then this is a push. For example, if in the example given above West Bromwich was given a handicap of 2 and failed to score any goals, and Manchester United only scored two goals, this would be a push. The result of a push is that all the punters receive their original wagers returned as there was no winner.

The “Asian Handicap” adds an additional element to soccer betting that can be both fun and profitable. This form of betting can be helpful for those punters that have a personal favorite that they intend to bet on, but are not confident that their favorite will win a particular match.

How to Make Over $1200 in 3 Hours in Soccer (Football) Live Betting

I play a round of mean soccer with my MALE soccer buddies every Wednesday night. I’m the only rose among the thorns. During each game, I simply forget that they are guys. I just concentrate on the game of eleven players against eleven players.

You may be curious to know which position does this rose cover? As I’m extremely nibble, agile and have excellent reflexes, I ‘man’ the goalposts. Yes, I’m the goalkeeper.

Mind you, the job of goalkeeping may be the most difficult job on the soccer pitch because the actions can come so fast and quick.

The goalie needs to possess the capacity to be razor sharp in concentration at a moment’s notice even though he/she may not have much to do for the last 89 minutes.

Now, why do these thorns trust their rosie goalkeeper… simply because I made a mean goalie. My defenders have absolute confidence in this “last woman standing”.

The great Brian Clough once said a good goalkeeper could be worth 15 points a season. It has been 360 minutes without my conceding a goal and I’m proud of this humble record.

I realized that playing a soccer game and placing a soccer bet have a lot of similarities. There are ups, there are downs, and sometimes there are turnarounds in the game or bet.

However, I’ve found that in soccer live betting, most of the “unpredictables” in the game can be decoded.

The odds provided by the bookmakers are a reflection of the performance of the teams on the pitch from the bookmakers’ point of view. So when we go along with the bookmakers’ reading of the game as reflected by the odds, we cannot be far off.

This makes soccer live betting a literal gold-mine IF we can possess the skill to “decode the odds” and place our winning bets. With so many live bets being offered on every match day, there’s plenty of profitable actions to be had.

(Live betting is also popularly known as bet in-play, in-running, in-game and running ball).

I was searching for a soccer live betting book which can teach me the techniques to decode the odds which is the integral part in profitable live betting. I found what I wanted in this 108 page soccer live betting system and let me show you what I’ve discovered.

1) Match Fixing At This Tail End Of The Soccer Season

The soccer season in Europe has reached the tail end. Games have been played and matches have been won and lost.

It is at this point of the season that the rumours of match fixing will rear its ugly head.

How could we ignore the gossips when completely unexpected results happen… especially when this is the crucial point of the season when teams are fighting for coveted places to play in an European competition, or to avoid relegation.

Of course, in soccer, just like in any sport, there are always freak results. Just one error in judgement by a referee or a linesman can make a difference between winning and losing.

For normal bets, unless the punter has access to the match fixing syndicate, it can be difficult for him to ‘smell out’ the suspicious matches. He has to be vigilant on any abnormal odds swings or prices too good to be true. The onus is on himself to be alert before placing his bets.

For live bets, as the odds are adjusted according to how the match is moving, if a syndicate has fixed a game, say the Home team to lose the match, their poor play would have been reflected in the odds movements. So you can say that this is one advantage live bets have over normal bets, provided you can decode the odds.

2) The Main Thing That This System Has Taught Me

This book opened up my eyes to look at the odds from a different angle – the angle which brought in the dole. I didn’t know the secret is hidden in the odds. Once you discover it, you’ll realize how easy it is to make money in soccer live betting.

I love the chapter on “Timing Of The Bets”. The author has meticulously explained the rationale in determining the best “profitable” times to place the bets. The screen-shots made it real easy to understand.

3) The No. 1 Tip I’ve Learned

For me, the No. 1 tip I’ve learned is the discipline to follow the criteria of each of the 10 strategies.

I realized the criteria form the foundation of the strategy and by following them strictly, I’ll not be tempted to deviate due to any emotion.

I’ll only place my bets when the selection meets the criteria 100%. This discipline makes me place each bet with utmost confidence.

4) The No. 2 Tip I’ve Learned

I realized a good betting system must be complemented with sensible money handling knowledge.

This book has an in-depth coverage on money management rules especially in staking plan and stop win/stop loss limit.

I once followed a system which recommended doubling up the next stake amount to cover the last loss. In one weekend, I lost 90% of my bank.

So knowing how to handle my betting money is the No. 2 tip.

5) Why Is This System The Complete System

I love to describe things in terms of hardware and software.

In this system book, the 10 strategies are the hardware. But to get the system going towards the profitable mode, it is necessary to install an efficient software to ensure consistent profit.

In this book, the author took pains to expound on the virtues of maintaining a winning mindset and dealing with emotions of fear and greed, every punter’s worst enemies.

The chapter on fear and greed is most valuable as the author painted a few betting scenarios to illustrate the point that the distinction between the successful punters and the unsuccessful lot is how they deal with these two emotions.

6) Which Strategy Every Punter Should Know

Out of the 10 strategies, I feel every live bettor should be well versed with the “Cut Loss Strategy” in order to limit any financial damage whenever needed.

Many things can happen in 90 minutes on the soccer pitch. To me, it is very comforting to know that there is a strategy of a “Plan B” when the original strategy is not working. This is my favourite strategy because I love back doors.

7) How Does This System Benefit You

With the 10 strategies, you’ll know exactly what to do when the betting opportunities present themselves.

You’ll not be led by emotion, or relying on luck, or by “guesstimates” to place your bets.

The odds which are a reflection of the performance of the two teams on the pitch will tell you what to do.

8) Can You Really Make $1200 In 3 Hours

Yes, you definitely can. There are so many live games offered on every match day. With the 10 strategies, you can generate regular profits easily.

Of course, your profit figure will depend on your stake amount. Always bet within your comfort zone.

9) What If You’ve No Experience In Soccer Live Betting

Do not fret. The system can be used even by an absolute beginner. Every strategy is described clearly. There are snapshots explaining each step of the strategy. So there is no guesswork. Every step is supported by the odds movement.

Conclusion

This system does not rely on injuries, previous match previews, weather condition, etc. It does not require hours of analysis on every match day.

You just need to acquire the know-how to read the odds movements.

Having the ability to “decode the odds” takes emotion out of the live betting equation. You bet based on what happens on the pitch, not whether Team A is your beloved team or Team X is your most hated club. This is the money making beauty of soccer live betting.