Soccer Betting – How To Make A Profit

Home In On The Best Picks And Tips From Hundreds Each Week:

Many football (soccer to our American friends) picks and tips sites provide only a few picks/tips a week, some only one, with many charging huge amounts for the privilege. In this article I will show you how to get the very best from hundreds of free and low cost picks and tips every week by answering these four questions.

What if you were able to pick the absolute best picks from hundreds of weekly picks/tips greatly increasing your chances of success?

What if those picks/tips are chosen based on the past performance of similar picks/tips and those picks/tips are all created using a combination of several tried and tested statistical methods?

What if you could know whether draw predictions, home predictions or away predictions are more successful for the English Premier League, the Italian Serie A, the German Bundesliga, or many other leagues across Europe?

What if you could do it all for FREE or very low cost?

Well now you can. If you’re interested then read on.

Some Tips Are Better Than Others:

Using well established statistical methods along with automated software it’s possible to generate hundreds of soccer tips every week for many leagues, theoretically you could cover all of the major leagues in the world. So what, why would you want to do that? Surely many of the tips will be grossly inaccurate but on the other hand many will be correct so how can you determine which will be successful and which not? It would be much better to just concentrate on one or two matches and predict their outcome by intensive and careful focused analysis.

On the face of it the above responses that I have seen over the years have some merit and deserve careful consideration, there is a good argument for focussed analysis of a single match with the aim of trying to predict its outcome. However, consider this, when a scientist runs a statistical analysis how many data items do they select as a representative sample? One, two… or more? When carrying out statistical analysis the more data you have to work on the better the outcome. For example,if you wanted to calculate the average height of a class of school children you could just take the first two or three as a sample. But if they are all six feet tall they are going to be highly unrepresentative so obviously you would get all their heights and calculate the average from those, the result is a much more accurate answer. It’s a simplistic example but hopefully you see my point. Obviously you can apply that argument to a single match by collecting past results for each side and carrying out statistical analysis techniques using that data, but why restrict your analysis to that one match?

We know that if we make hundreds of automated tips, based on sound tried and tested statistical methods, that some will be successful and others won’t. So how do we target in on the best tips, the ones most likely to be correct, and how do we do it week after week? Well, the answer is to keep a record of how each and every tip performs, some tips are better than others and we want to know which ones. At this stage, if your thinking how can I possibly calculate all of that information for every game, in every league I want to cover, and do it every week, then don’t worry I’ll show you how it’s all done for you at the end of the article.

Results Are Not Always The Same:

Simply keeping a record of how each of the hundreds of tips we make actually perform against the eventual result is not enough, what we need now is a way of analysing that data and grouping it logically to get the best from it. Results are not always the same, in other words a tip that shows one possible outcome for match A and the same possible outcome for match B will not necessarily produce the same result (i.e. a correct prediction or a wrong prediction). Why is this? Well there are hundreds of reasons why and you will never be able to account for them all, if you could you would no doubt be a millionaire. When trying to predict the outcome of a match you may look at such qualitative things as the current injury list of each team, the team sheet, morale of the players, etc. We can also look at Quantitative factors using our statistical methods to predict the outcome of the match, so we may look at such things as past performance, position in the league, or more tried and tested statistical methods such as the Rateform method. We can use all of this information to predict the outcome of match A and the outcome of match B and still not have the same result, part of the reason for this is, as explained before, that we can not account for all the factors in a match, it’s impossible. But there’s something else, something we can account for which we have not yet thought about.

When we look at one match in isolation we only look at the factors concerning each of the two teams in the match, but why not expand this to look at how the other teams they have played are also performing? ‘Why would we want to do that?’ I hear some of you say. Because results are not always the same. Let’s say our prediction for match A and match B is a home win (forgetting about the predicted score for the moment). What else can we take into account to improve the prediction of a home win? We can look at the performance of all the home win tips made for the same competition that the match is being played in and then make a judgement based on that new information. This is great as it gives us an extra factoring level to take into account that we did not have before.

Looking across all the home win predictions in a single league will give us a percentage success rate for home wins for that particular league, but we can improve on this even further. We can do this by doing the exact same exercise across many different leagues and obtaining a percentage success rate for each league. This means we can now look for the league which produces the best overall home win prediction success rate and look for home win predictions for the coming fixtures. By default we know that that league is more likely to produce a successful outcome for a home prediction than any other. Of course we can employ this technique for away win and draw predictions as well.

How Tight Is The League?:

Why does this difference between the leagues occur? As with trying to predict the outcome of a single match there are many factors that make up this phenomenon, but there are just a few major factors that influence why one league should produce more home wins through a season than another. The most obvious of these could be described as the ‘tightness’ of the league. What do I mean by ‘tightness’? In any league there is often a gap in the skills and abilities of those teams consistently at the top of the league and those at the bottom, this is often expressed as a ‘difference in class’. This difference in class varies markedly between different leagues with some leagues being much more competitive than others due to a closer level of skills throughout the league, ‘a tight league’. In the case of a tight league the instances of drawn games will be more noticeable than with a ‘not so tight league’ and home wins will most likely be of a lower frequency.

So, let’s say we are interested in predicting a home win, armed with our new information about the ‘tightness’ of leagues we could make predictions for matches throughout a season for as many leagues as we can manage, and watch how those predictions perform in each league. You will find that the success of the predictions will closely match the ‘tightness’ of a particular league, so where a particular league produces more home wins then we will have more success with our home predictions. Don’t be misled, this does not mean that just because there are more home wins we are bound to be more accurate, what I am taking about is a success rate in percentage terms of the number of home predictions made which has nothing directly to do with how many actual home wins there are. For example, let’s say we make one hundred home predictions in league A and one hundred in league B, and let’s say that seventy five percent are correct in league A but only sixty percent in league B. We have made the same number of predictions in each league with differing results, and those difference are most likely due to the ‘tightness’ of each league. League B will be a ‘tight’ league with more teams having similar levels of ‘class’, whereas league A has a wider margin of class when it comes to the teams within it. Therefore we should pick out the best performing league concerning home wins and make our home win selections from that league.

We Have To Be Consistent:

Of course there is more to it than that. It’s no good just taking each tip and recording how it performed we have to apply the same rules to each and every tip made. You have to make sure that the parameters you set for each predictive method you use (e.g. Rateform, Score Prediction, etc.) remain constant. So choose your best settings for each method and stick to them for each and every prediction, for every league, and for the whole season. You must do this in order to retain consistency of predictions within leagues, between leagues, and over time. There is nothing stopping you using several different sets of parameters as long as you keep the data produced from each separate.

If you are wondering what the parameters are then take the Rateform method as an example. Using this method we produce an integer number that represents the possible outcome of a match (I’m not going to go into detail about the Rateform method here as that’s the subject of another of my articles). You can set break points that represent a home win and an away win, so if the resulting rateform output for a match is higher than the upper breakpoint then that match could be deemed a home win. Similarly, if the resulting rateform output for a match is lower than the lower breakpoint then that match could be deemed as an away win. Anything that falls in-between is deemed a draw.

Footyforecast.com (now 1X2Monster.com) has been delivering this kind of information, week in week out, on its website since 1999. It covers eighteen leagues across Europe including; English Premiership, Scottish Premiership, Italian Serie A, German Bundesliga, Dutch Eredivisie, Spain, France, to name but a few. A total of seven different statistical methods are used to determine the outcome of each game played in each league, and a comprehensive record of how each method in each game performed is kept. Apart from how each tip performed within its respective league Footyforecast also provides the league tables of how each league has performed in successfully predicting outcomes of games. The league tables of prediction performance are produced for home win predictions, draw predictions, away win predictions, and for overall predictions and are invaluable tools to the soccer punter when deciding where to target their European soccer predictions.

So there you have it. Hopefully I have shown you how to target in on the best leagues in order to raise your chances of success when predicting 1X2 results, and, although I offer no guarantees, I’m fairly confident that this method will improve your profits.

Betting on Steamers and Drifters on Betfair Has Nothing to Do With Irons Or Driftwood

Or is it a question of where. This method of betting on horses works by being able to back and lay the same horse. A betting exchange like Betfair is an ideal place to do this. For a horse who’s odds are shortening (steaming) the idea is to back when the odds are wider and lay the odds when they are shorter. The rule of thumb to make money by movement in the odds is to lay short odds and back longer odds. So, if the horse is drifting you lay when the odds are short and back after they lengthen. This is a type of betting arbitrage and locks in a small profit whatever the outcome. The profit is determined by the difference between the odds (back and lay) and the size of the stake.

I know, I know, this all sounds very easy when we are sitting in ivory towers, but what about the real world. There is skill to betting on steamers and drifters, which involves selecting in advance which horses will show these profitable characteristics.

If you are unfamiliar with Betfair it is worth taking sometime to get to know the website.

Here are 3 ways to find steamers and drifters. But first, a tip to aid you in the quest for spotting steamers or drifters. Get comfortable with Betfair and how the odds change before a race starts. Notice which horses have an imbalance of money backing or laying. Significantly more money backing a horse can be an indication that something has happened to improve the horse’s chances. Consequently other Betfair members may offer shorter odds, which can turn the horse into a steamer. The opposite is true for a horse who’s likelihood of winning reduces for some reason.

Ok, now for three tips for finding steamers or drifters.

The weather. If the whether changes un-expectantly or by more than what has been predicted the chance of certain horses performing well or badly can change dramatically. Let’s expand on this. The weather affects the state of the race track, known as ‘the going’. The condition of the track is tested by an official at the race track. They push a stick into the track to see the state of the earth. There are a range of classifications that are used; hard, firm, good to firm, good, good to soft, soft, and heavy. Some horses perform much better on certain surfaces than others. For example, if ‘the going’ is good it suits a horse that has speed. If the ground is less than good (good to soft, soft and heavy) then a horse with stamina will perform better.

If the weather forecast foretells that the going will be good the favourite will be a horse with speed. If you have a more reliable weather forecast or you have information about a change of conditions as they happen you can back or lay the horse before its odds change.

Imagine there is unexpected rain or more than expected. If a horse is favourite because it has speed it’s odds will lengthen significantly (drift), and a horse’s odds who has stamina will shorten (steam). In this example you would lay the favourite to lose at short odds. Then back the horse to when after the odds have drifted. The same works in reverse for the horse with stamina who’s odds will steam. This is just one example of how a change in weather can produce steamer and drifters.

The rider. A change of Jockey can produce a steamer or drifter. If a jockey is injured, then the horse is allocated another jockey. As you might expect an experienced jockey will perform better than a jockey who hasn’t had as many races or good performances. The odds will drift (lengthen) if a jockey is replaced by one with less experience. The odds will steam (shorten) if a less experienced jockey is replaced by one who has had better performances.

The third and final method of finding drifters or steamers is to watch the horse closely before the race. During this time the horse will be warmed up by the trainer. It is possible for the horse to use up too much energy during the warm up. Tell tail signs of a horse that is expending too much energy before ‘the off’ are lots of sweat (actually loads of sweat caused by anxiety), rearing, and kicking the hind legs. You can not use this technique in isolation. A good knowledge of the horse and trainer is important. This makes it easier to spot abnormal behavior shown by the horse before the start.

Beating The Odds – A New Approach to Betting on Boxing

Casino Visions and Caviar Dreams

Most of us have heard this before: “I’m going to get rich this weekend. I’m feeling lucky. I’m going to triple this money I have. It was set aside for the mortgage, but I know I’m going to win. I can feel it. I was so close last time.”

It’s beyond cliché. It’s a cultural phenomenon, with the optimistic playing the part of financial lemmings, eager to swim out in the ocean too far to swim back to shore (or in this case solvency).

The people who go to casino’s with such a “plan” usually end up leaving with their tail between their legs.

Casino towns are money siphons, an instant asset reallocation strategy for the hopeful. For every sensible vacationer who takes a preset allotment of discretionary income to a gaming community for some kicks and a show, there is a reckless gambling addict hurtling toward destitution. The trick, as the song said, is to never play the game too long.

So, according to the industry, you can rely on the lady luck long shot, the win some-lose more method long endorsed by the gaming community, or inflict upon yourself the relative tedium of card counting.

What other options are there for the gaming enthusiast looking for a sincere chance to beat the house advantage?

There is, some say, a formula.

The Formula

In today’s computer culture, advanced mathematical calculations are just an app away. Computation professionals are driving technology further, faster.

Is it really surprising that in an era where the numerics of card counting have tipped the scale in blackjack, to have another contender emerge and challenge the notion that the odds always favor the house?

This has indeed happened. It comes from France. It is called the Martingale method, and was considered high tech… by eighteenth century nobility.

The system revolves around the fundamental principal of doubling your bet each time you lose until you win.

The theory is that you are bound to get one right eventually, and you then will get the payoff you pursued in the initial wager.

One interesting point about this method is that at first glance the wagerer appears to be a gambling addict on a bender. Upon closer inspection, what looks like unstable behavior shows itself to be the execution of a discipline within the chaos of wagering. It can pay.

The method practitioner must have researched the technique and learnt the entire formula, which can be fully understood in hours armed with nothing more than elementary school math.

So far so good. The rub? One had better know their game. Losses get expensive quickly. A wagerer could be risking $16 to win the $1 they set out to win. If the first bet was large, the risks can be disproportionate.

Where does this lead the hopeful wagering enthusiast who is not a card counter in possession of a substantial bankroll? This is the dead end. Or is it?

Hiring A Ringer

One can try the internet sports pickers. Called “touts,” these people are willing to do the analyses (thinking) for you.

Touts study a sport or sports, and one pays them for their expertise. Upon swiping your card, the “expert” bestows upon you their predictions, ranging in time from a day to a year.

Touts do not gamble for you. They don’t make wagers: only predictions.

The tout business is competitive, and if you do more than peruse their adverts there are a few things of which you should be aware. First, it is rumored that some of these touts don’t exist as an actual person, but are instead marketing gimmicks.

As I investigated this book, a controversy was brewing about an invented tout with the last name Chan, whose character was allegedly created to appeal to a certain demographic. How could this happen? Touts are often organized into groups. Tout houses are arranged so prospective clients can elect a soothsayer that aligns with prospect preferences.

The more diversified the choices, the more likely a prospective client is to find kinship through familiarity with one of the choices.

Not having a matching demographic option, wouldn’t it make sense for the marketing arm of such an organization to develop as many choices as possible? What if the creation of such a character was the best available option? Is it lying or promotional enhancement?

In any event this forum, like every casino ville, may not be exactly what it seems.

When employing touts, another aspect/gimmick of which you should be aware is the star rating system. Touts diversify their picks between 1 and 5 stars (5 being preferred). The star ratings are meant to establish the confidence level a tout has on a prediction.

For example, say a tout believes one team should beat another, but hasn’t much confidence, that pick would be given one star. Should the tout feel assured about a selection, the pick would receive a rating of 5 stars. Two through 4 stars implies a marginal degree of confidence in the selection.

When one looks at an advert where a tout says they have won six 5 star picks in a row, that doesn’t mean they’ve done the same with their picks made from 1 to 4 stars.

I’m not saying this scenario happens often, but without monitoring, how does one keep track? Does this mean that touts can keep five lists, and advertise the one currently doing well? The answer is yes. Forewarned is forearmed.

In addition, its hard to determine what touts mean in terms of money amounts to place according to their recommendations. Touts use the term “units” instead of dollars or pounds or yen. Classifying currency as “units” is an insurance tactic often used to confuse and mislead the unwary.

The biggest rap on these touts is that most are said to make their money by selling picks and not by using their own product and investing their own money in their predictions.

By the way, this is a flourishing industry. The clientele is alert and attentive. In fairness, the market doesn’t sustain itself on newbies or suckers. Many touts have niche specialties that pay off for their patrons.

The lesson here is to learn the terms before you invest. Only a dupe would try to cheat this learning curve.

Counting Cards

Is there a game available at every casino where the players have the edge over the house? The rumor is that that blackjack, or 21, affords the players just that chance.

Our investigation began with the movie 21, about the M.I.T. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) blackjack team. The movie was based on a book called Bringing Down The House, and was, allegedly sponsored by the gaming industry itself.

How is it that the gambling machine would support a movie that has as premise that one of the casino’s primary moneymaking games can be outwitted and foiled by a counting approach that can be learned by the average player?

We found that even if blackjack card counting techniques do allow players a mathematical advantage over the house, there is at least one catch.

We spoke to Dennis, a blackjack card counter, who was plying his trade at the Red Garter hotel and casino in Wendover, Nevada. Dennis was willing to talk to us but refused to be photographed because he believes the picture could be formatted to use by industry facial recognition software, which could lead to his eviction by casinos.

Dennis also declined our using his last name, citing the player reward cards that track players through out their casino stay, and use the results to offer freebies and discounts. These cards are considered a substantial perk system linked to a name, making it monitored and tracked.

“The idea that you can beat the game of 21 is correct, but incomplete,” Dennis explained. The missing part of that statement seems to be the word “temporarily.”

How long does it take to become a successful card counter? Not long at all, according to Dennis, who says he has been applying “the system” for 5 years.

Dennis recounts his challenges in card counting: chief among them is not getting caught. “Card counting is 100% legal, AND if you are noticed by the casinos counting, there is a 100% chance you will be thrown out of the casino and blacklisted from ever returning.”

Dennis lowered his voice before continuing. “You are counting cards to get a small mathematical advantage. It might take over an hour to do it. Then, if you get the hand you want you still have to have your count straight and be ready to jump on it, make your money, then get out of the place before security can respond to the large increase in bet size you just made.”

“Upping the bet,” Dennis confided, “is the big giveaway in blackjack. The eye-in-the-sky (remote viewing system) will catch that every time.”

He finished with some advice and an admonition: “If you are having the free drinks the casinos offer, or are distracted by anything, you will miss your chance for profit. If you are smart, you’ll keep your winnings. Many blackjack players blow their profit on another casino game the very day they win big.”

I nodded, now understanding the casino corporation’s motivation in sponsoring a movie like 21, and being able to verify that there is indeed a table game where the player has the odds on advantage over the house, but not by much and not for very long.

The Alternative

We have, in this section, covered some of the approaches to making a profit in the casino world: the shot-in-the-dark, wager sequencing systems, counting cards and bringing in paid experts. Is there another option, one that can bring the best of the best together into a cohesive, reliable whole?

Some are claiming there is such an option. They believe results can be nearly standardized. The game is, surprisingly, the oldest known sport. Like it or not, professional fist-fighting may be the sound investment both the gambler and professional investor have been looking for.

Why boxing? According to believers, the reasons are elementary.

The first attribute seems most attractive to investors: reduction of variables. Anyone who has watched trading on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange tends to believe they are watching uncoordinated chaos, as companies allow complete strangers to monitor the funds of their clientele.

In boxing there are only four conclusions;

  1. One fighter prevails.
  2. The adversary is victorious.
  3. The result is even (called a “draw”). In such a case the investment is returned untouched as a break-even affair, or in sports investment parlance, a push.
  4. Lastly, this fourth conclusion is a biased result, usually assisting the local athlete or contestant with favorable promotional contacts.

One group benefiting from this new investment paradigm featuring boxing are called Boxing Bet Predictors. This lot contends that the above four results, these few component pieces, allow greater chance of victory on a consistent basis than their stock market counterparts.

They charge that contrary to the cultivated image of legitimacy for Wall Street, there are intentional steps taken to give the appearance of neutrality that do nothing more than assure gambling odds on par with the casino game roulette, as thorough investigation in sanctioned stock investments are called insider trading, which is illegal.

Boxing Bet Predictors contend that it is just this sort of investigative limitation in stocks that supply advantage to their own investment game. Boxing Bet Predictors can legally perform insider trading from numerous sources. Such sources include print, internet sites like blogs, forums and YouTube, as well as television options ranging from ESPN to HBO, Showtime and PPV.

Along with variable reduction and investigative liberty comes the skill development necessary to be a successful investor. To many, the science of knowing which prizefighter will best the other seems confusing and random. Boxing Bet Predictors insist it is neither.

First, one must learn when and where NOT to invest. After that, it is the relatively simple process of knowing on whom one should make their pick.

Sound complicated? Not according to the experts, in this case the boxing bet predictors, who maintain that the necessary knack is not in knowing the fighters, but the styles of the fighters, who’s elements seem to dovetail together very much like the children’s game “paper-rock-scissors.”

The learning curve for this strategy specialty doesn’t need to take years, just months. Like any new skill with a short-term learning curve, there is a key focus: upon recognizing how the few styles interrelate, accuracy rates of 75% should not just be considered obtainable, but expected.

The Conclusion

With an absence of trust in stock secured retirements, people are looking at options. This article has covered most of the credible options. Prudence and judgment must go together to benefit from any investment strategy.

Soccer Betting – The "Asian Handicap"

A draw, or tied score, is a frequent outcome in soccer. In the 2008-2009 season, almost a quarter of all Premier League matches resulted in a draw. Because such an outcome is so common, traditional betting usually involves betting within the context of three different outcomes: a win for one team, a draw, or a win for the other team. The “Asian handicap” is a means of changing this by “handicapping” the underdog by a certain percentage, meaning that a draw becomes impossible.

Most handicaps are made at intervals of one half or one quarter, meaning that there has to be a winner since it is impossible to score a half or quarter goal. The purpose is to make the odds as close to 50-50 as possible and eliminating the draw as a possible outcome. Because the odds are almost half when a handicap is applied, the payout is usually even money, or very close to it.

The primary benefit is encouraging punters to bet on matches where there is a clear favorite. For example, if Manchester United (winner of the Premier League in the 2008-2009 season) were to play West Bromwich (the bottom team of the Premier League during the same season), few punters would be interested in betting. This is because Manchester United is a much better team and the odds are strongly in their favor.

However, if West Bromwich was given a handicap of +2.5, it would mean that they would be effectively starting with a lead of 2.5 goals. This means Manchester United would have to score three goals more than West Bromwich to be the winner as far as the bet is concerned. If West Bromwich scored one goal, then Manchester would have to score four to win. Handicapping obviously changes the odds significantly.

An interesting aspect of handicapping is the push. If an even number is used for the handicap, and the actual score plus the handicap equals a draw, then this is a push. For example, if in the example given above West Bromwich was given a handicap of 2 and failed to score any goals, and Manchester United only scored two goals, this would be a push. The result of a push is that all the punters receive their original wagers returned as there was no winner.

The “Asian Handicap” adds an additional element to soccer betting that can be both fun and profitable. This form of betting can be helpful for those punters that have a personal favorite that they intend to bet on, but are not confident that their favorite will win a particular match.